Publication
International Trade Liberalization and Domestic Institutional Reform: Effects of WTO Accession on Chinese Internal Migration Policy, accepted at the Review of Economics and Statistics [Paper]
Abstract: Economic institutions that impede factor mobility become more costly when an economy experiences substantial transitions such as trade liberalization. I study how trade triggers changes in labor institutions that regulate internal migration in the context of China's Hukou system. Using a newly-collected dataset on prefecture-level migration policies, I document an increase in pro-migrant regulations following WTO entry and estimate the impact of prefecture-level tariffs on exports on migration regulations from 2001 to 2007. I find that regions facing more export market liberalization enacted more migrant-friendly regulations.
Social Learning Along International Migrant Networks (with Maria Esther Caballero and Brian Kovak)
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, March 2022, 195, pp. 103-121 [Paper]
Abstract: We document the transmission of social distancing practices from the United States to Mexico along migrant networks during the early 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. Using data on pre-existing migrant connections between Mexican and U.S. locations and mobile-phone tracking data revealing social distancing behavior, we find larger declines in mobility in Mexican regions whose emigrants live in U.S. locations with stronger social distancing practices. We document the absence of confounding pre-trends and use a variety of controls to rule out the potential influence of disease transmission, migrant sorting between similar locations, and remittances. Given this evidence, we conclude that our findings represent the effect of information transmission between Mexican migrants living in the U.S. and residents of their home locations in Mexico. Our results demonstrate the importance of personal connections when policymakers seek to change fundamental social behaviors.
The Safest Time to Fly: Pandemic Response in the Era of Fox News (with Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker)
Journal of Population Economics, July 2021, 34(3), pp. 775-802 (Lead article). [Paper]
Abstract: We document a causal effect of conservative Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all U.S. states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15-17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Then, using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and a smaller increase in the probability to stay home after the national emergency declaration in the United States. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people’s behaviour.
Killer Cities: Past and Present (with W. Walker Hanlon)
American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, May 2015, 105(5), pp. 570-575 [Paper]
Abstract: The industrial cities of the 19th century were incredibly unhealthy places to live. How much progress has been made in reducing these negative health effects over the past 150 years? To help answer this question, we compare mortality patterns in 19th century England to those in Chinese urban areas in 2000. We document that substantial improvements have been made in improving health in cities over this period. Unlike historical English cities, large cities in China have lower mortality than less populated areas. However, we also provide evidence that in China a substantial relationship between industrial pollution and mortality remains.
Abstract: Economic institutions that impede factor mobility become more costly when an economy experiences substantial transitions such as trade liberalization. I study how trade triggers changes in labor institutions that regulate internal migration in the context of China's Hukou system. Using a newly-collected dataset on prefecture-level migration policies, I document an increase in pro-migrant regulations following WTO entry and estimate the impact of prefecture-level tariffs on exports on migration regulations from 2001 to 2007. I find that regions facing more export market liberalization enacted more migrant-friendly regulations.
Social Learning Along International Migrant Networks (with Maria Esther Caballero and Brian Kovak)
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, March 2022, 195, pp. 103-121 [Paper]
Abstract: We document the transmission of social distancing practices from the United States to Mexico along migrant networks during the early 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. Using data on pre-existing migrant connections between Mexican and U.S. locations and mobile-phone tracking data revealing social distancing behavior, we find larger declines in mobility in Mexican regions whose emigrants live in U.S. locations with stronger social distancing practices. We document the absence of confounding pre-trends and use a variety of controls to rule out the potential influence of disease transmission, migrant sorting between similar locations, and remittances. Given this evidence, we conclude that our findings represent the effect of information transmission between Mexican migrants living in the U.S. and residents of their home locations in Mexico. Our results demonstrate the importance of personal connections when policymakers seek to change fundamental social behaviors.
The Safest Time to Fly: Pandemic Response in the Era of Fox News (with Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker)
Journal of Population Economics, July 2021, 34(3), pp. 775-802 (Lead article). [Paper]
Abstract: We document a causal effect of conservative Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all U.S. states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15-17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Then, using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and a smaller increase in the probability to stay home after the national emergency declaration in the United States. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people’s behaviour.
Killer Cities: Past and Present (with W. Walker Hanlon)
American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, May 2015, 105(5), pp. 570-575 [Paper]
Abstract: The industrial cities of the 19th century were incredibly unhealthy places to live. How much progress has been made in reducing these negative health effects over the past 150 years? To help answer this question, we compare mortality patterns in 19th century England to those in Chinese urban areas in 2000. We document that substantial improvements have been made in improving health in cities over this period. Unlike historical English cities, large cities in China have lower mortality than less populated areas. However, we also provide evidence that in China a substantial relationship between industrial pollution and mortality remains.
Working Paper
Trade-Induced Urbanization and the Making of Modern Agriculture (with Junjie Xia and Rudai Yang) [Paper]
Abstract: Manufacturing growth can benefit the agricultural sector if the outflow of labor from agriculture improves land allocation efficiency and facilitates capital adoption. Using destination prefectures' trade shocks in the manufacturing sector driven by China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the origin village's initial internal migration network, we construct the exposure to manufacturing trade shocks for a panel of 295 villages from 2001 to 2010. We find that villages with larger increases in trade exposure had larger increases in the share of non-agricultural laborers, more fluid local land markets, and faster modernization of production through the adoption of agricultural machinery. Village-level agricultural productivity improved through the allocation of land towards more productive farmers within a village. During the era we study, transaction costs declined in the agricultural land market. We use a quantitative model to show that the growth in non-agricultural productivity had a larger impact on urbanization and agricultural modernization than reductions in transaction costs.
Selected presentations: University of Zurich, NBER SI ITI, INSEAD, LSE, HKU, Oxford.
Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain (with Alejandro Graziano) [Paper]
Abstract: In 2020, a pandemic generated by a novel virus caused a large and abrupt decline in world trade, only comparable within the last half-century to the Great Trade Collapse during the 2008-09 Financial Crisis. This collapse followed naturally from the difficulty of locally producing, transporting, and consuming goods in the affected regions worldwide. In this paper, we study the impact of these disruptive local shocks on international trade flows during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich product-level import data from Colombia, we first show that, import collapse at the onset of the pandemic was due to a decrease in import quantities, and the import recovery in later periods was partially explained by a rise in both foreign export prices and shipping costs. Using smartphone data tracking local human mobility changes to identify local shocks, we decompose the trade effects into shocks originating from exporter cities, seaports, and importer cities. We find that while the decline in quantity was driven by both changes in exporter and importer shocks, the increase in price was entirely driven by exporter shocks. Using data on port calls made by container ships, we document a decline in port productivity during the pandemic. We show that mobility changes at port locations induced a decline in port efficiency and a rise in freight costs. We also document a positive correlation between product-level domestic inflation and mobility shocks to foreign exporters.
Selected presentations: BSE Summer Forum, UEA, Aarhus University, Fudan University, Geneva Graduate Institute (GTDW), University of Birmingham, KCL Trade and Development Workshop, Bank of Italy-ECB-WB Workshop.
Abstract: Manufacturing growth can benefit the agricultural sector if the outflow of labor from agriculture improves land allocation efficiency and facilitates capital adoption. Using destination prefectures' trade shocks in the manufacturing sector driven by China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the origin village's initial internal migration network, we construct the exposure to manufacturing trade shocks for a panel of 295 villages from 2001 to 2010. We find that villages with larger increases in trade exposure had larger increases in the share of non-agricultural laborers, more fluid local land markets, and faster modernization of production through the adoption of agricultural machinery. Village-level agricultural productivity improved through the allocation of land towards more productive farmers within a village. During the era we study, transaction costs declined in the agricultural land market. We use a quantitative model to show that the growth in non-agricultural productivity had a larger impact on urbanization and agricultural modernization than reductions in transaction costs.
Selected presentations: University of Zurich, NBER SI ITI, INSEAD, LSE, HKU, Oxford.
Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain (with Alejandro Graziano) [Paper]
Abstract: In 2020, a pandemic generated by a novel virus caused a large and abrupt decline in world trade, only comparable within the last half-century to the Great Trade Collapse during the 2008-09 Financial Crisis. This collapse followed naturally from the difficulty of locally producing, transporting, and consuming goods in the affected regions worldwide. In this paper, we study the impact of these disruptive local shocks on international trade flows during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich product-level import data from Colombia, we first show that, import collapse at the onset of the pandemic was due to a decrease in import quantities, and the import recovery in later periods was partially explained by a rise in both foreign export prices and shipping costs. Using smartphone data tracking local human mobility changes to identify local shocks, we decompose the trade effects into shocks originating from exporter cities, seaports, and importer cities. We find that while the decline in quantity was driven by both changes in exporter and importer shocks, the increase in price was entirely driven by exporter shocks. Using data on port calls made by container ships, we document a decline in port productivity during the pandemic. We show that mobility changes at port locations induced a decline in port efficiency and a rise in freight costs. We also document a positive correlation between product-level domestic inflation and mobility shocks to foreign exporters.
Selected presentations: BSE Summer Forum, UEA, Aarhus University, Fudan University, Geneva Graduate Institute (GTDW), University of Birmingham, KCL Trade and Development Workshop, Bank of Italy-ECB-WB Workshop.
Work in Progress
Migration Restrictions and Economic Misallocation (with Brian Kovak)
In the Network: Gift-Exchanges and Migration (with Junjie Xia)
Shape of Jobs and Urban Wage Premium (with Junjie Xia)
In the Network: Gift-Exchanges and Migration (with Junjie Xia)
Shape of Jobs and Urban Wage Premium (with Junjie Xia)
Book Chapter
Covid-19 and the Media (with Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker)
Prepared for the Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, K.F. Zimmermann (ed.) [Paper]
Prepared for the Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, K.F. Zimmermann (ed.) [Paper]