Publications
International Trade Liberalization and Domestic Institutional Reform: Effects of WTO Accession on Chinese Internal Migration Policy, forthcoming at the Review of Economics and Statistics [Paper]
Abstract: Economic institutions that impede factor mobility become more costly when an economy experiences substantial transitions such as trade liberalization. I study how trade triggers changes in labor institutions that regulate internal migration in the context of China's Hukou system. Using a newly-collected dataset on prefecture-level migration policies, I document an increase in pro-migrant regulations following WTO entry and estimate the impact of prefecture-level tariffs on exports on migration regulations from 2001 to 2007. I find that regions facing more export market liberalization enacted more migrant-friendly regulations.
Social Learning Along International Migrant Networks (with Maria Esther Caballero and Brian Kovak)
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, March 2022, 195, pp. 103-121 [Paper]
Abstract: We document the transmission of social distancing practices from the United States to Mexico along migrant networks during the early 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. Using data on pre-existing migrant connections between Mexican and U.S. locations and mobile-phone tracking data revealing social distancing behavior, we find larger declines in mobility in Mexican regions whose emigrants live in U.S. locations with stronger social distancing practices. We document the absence of confounding pre-trends and use a variety of controls to rule out the potential influence of disease transmission, migrant sorting between similar locations, and remittances. Given this evidence, we conclude that our findings represent the effect of information transmission between Mexican migrants living in the U.S. and residents of their home locations in Mexico. Our results demonstrate the importance of personal connections when policymakers seek to change fundamental social behaviors.
The Safest Time to Fly: Pandemic Response in the Era of Fox News (with Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker)
Journal of Population Economics, July 2021, 34(3), pp. 775-802 (Lead article). [Paper]
Abstract: We document a causal effect of conservative Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all U.S. states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15-17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Then, using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and a smaller increase in the probability to stay home after the national emergency declaration in the United States. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people’s behaviour.
Killer Cities: Past and Present (with W. Walker Hanlon)
American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, May 2015, 105(5), pp. 570-575 [Paper]
Abstract: The industrial cities of the 19th century were incredibly unhealthy places to live. How much progress has been made in reducing these negative health effects over the past 150 years? To help answer this question, we compare mortality patterns in 19th century England to those in Chinese urban areas in 2000. We document that substantial improvements have been made in improving health in cities over this period. Unlike historical English cities, large cities in China have lower mortality than less populated areas. However, we also provide evidence that in China a substantial relationship between industrial pollution and mortality remains.
Abstract: Economic institutions that impede factor mobility become more costly when an economy experiences substantial transitions such as trade liberalization. I study how trade triggers changes in labor institutions that regulate internal migration in the context of China's Hukou system. Using a newly-collected dataset on prefecture-level migration policies, I document an increase in pro-migrant regulations following WTO entry and estimate the impact of prefecture-level tariffs on exports on migration regulations from 2001 to 2007. I find that regions facing more export market liberalization enacted more migrant-friendly regulations.
Social Learning Along International Migrant Networks (with Maria Esther Caballero and Brian Kovak)
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, March 2022, 195, pp. 103-121 [Paper]
Abstract: We document the transmission of social distancing practices from the United States to Mexico along migrant networks during the early 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. Using data on pre-existing migrant connections between Mexican and U.S. locations and mobile-phone tracking data revealing social distancing behavior, we find larger declines in mobility in Mexican regions whose emigrants live in U.S. locations with stronger social distancing practices. We document the absence of confounding pre-trends and use a variety of controls to rule out the potential influence of disease transmission, migrant sorting between similar locations, and remittances. Given this evidence, we conclude that our findings represent the effect of information transmission between Mexican migrants living in the U.S. and residents of their home locations in Mexico. Our results demonstrate the importance of personal connections when policymakers seek to change fundamental social behaviors.
The Safest Time to Fly: Pandemic Response in the Era of Fox News (with Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker)
Journal of Population Economics, July 2021, 34(3), pp. 775-802 (Lead article). [Paper]
Abstract: We document a causal effect of conservative Fox News Channel in the United States on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all U.S. states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15-17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Then, using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and a smaller increase in the probability to stay home after the national emergency declaration in the United States. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people’s behaviour.
Killer Cities: Past and Present (with W. Walker Hanlon)
American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, May 2015, 105(5), pp. 570-575 [Paper]
Abstract: The industrial cities of the 19th century were incredibly unhealthy places to live. How much progress has been made in reducing these negative health effects over the past 150 years? To help answer this question, we compare mortality patterns in 19th century England to those in Chinese urban areas in 2000. We document that substantial improvements have been made in improving health in cities over this period. Unlike historical English cities, large cities in China have lower mortality than less populated areas. However, we also provide evidence that in China a substantial relationship between industrial pollution and mortality remains.
Working Papers
Trade-Induced Urbanization and the Making of Modern Agriculture (with Junjie Xia and Rudai Yang) [Paper]
Abstract: Can structural transformation originate from growth in manufacturing? We study this question in the context of China's manufacturing trade growth after its entry into the World Trade Organization. We construct exposure to manufacturing trade shocks for rural villages by using initial internal migration networks and trade shocks experienced by destination prefectures in the manufacturing sector. We find that increases in manufacturing trade exposure led to an outflow of labor from the agricultural sector, more active land rental markets, and faster modernization of agricultural production through mechanization. Agricultural productivity improved through migrant selection and reductions in land misallocation.
Selected presentations: University of Zurich, NBER SI ITI, INSEAD, LSE, HKU, Oxford, STEG*.
Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain (with Alejandro Graziano) [Paper]
Abstract: In 2020, the Covid pandemic caused a large decline in world trade, only comparable in recent records to the 2008-2009 trade collapse. We study the pandemic trade impact originating from local disruptions by combining Colombia customs records, smartphone data on sub-national human mobility, and port call data on global container ship movement. Initially, exporter shocks explained 26% of the decline in import quantity and most of the increase in prices. Subsequently, transportation disruptions contributed more towards the price increase. We additionally uncover the short-run elasticity of substitution across exporter cities and the pass-through of foreign local shocks to domestic inflation.
Selected presentations: BSE Summer Forum, UEA, Aarhus, Fudan, Geneva Graduate Institute (GTDW), Birmingham, KCL Trade and Development Workshop, Bank of Italy-ECB-WB Workshop, CUHK*, Loyola Marymount University*.
Out of the Network: Migration and the Decay of Relational Society (with Junjie Xia) [draft coming soon]
Migration Restrictions and Economic Misallocation (with Brian Kovak) [draft coming soon]
Abstract: Can structural transformation originate from growth in manufacturing? We study this question in the context of China's manufacturing trade growth after its entry into the World Trade Organization. We construct exposure to manufacturing trade shocks for rural villages by using initial internal migration networks and trade shocks experienced by destination prefectures in the manufacturing sector. We find that increases in manufacturing trade exposure led to an outflow of labor from the agricultural sector, more active land rental markets, and faster modernization of agricultural production through mechanization. Agricultural productivity improved through migrant selection and reductions in land misallocation.
Selected presentations: University of Zurich, NBER SI ITI, INSEAD, LSE, HKU, Oxford, STEG*.
Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain (with Alejandro Graziano) [Paper]
Abstract: In 2020, the Covid pandemic caused a large decline in world trade, only comparable in recent records to the 2008-2009 trade collapse. We study the pandemic trade impact originating from local disruptions by combining Colombia customs records, smartphone data on sub-national human mobility, and port call data on global container ship movement. Initially, exporter shocks explained 26% of the decline in import quantity and most of the increase in prices. Subsequently, transportation disruptions contributed more towards the price increase. We additionally uncover the short-run elasticity of substitution across exporter cities and the pass-through of foreign local shocks to domestic inflation.
Selected presentations: BSE Summer Forum, UEA, Aarhus, Fudan, Geneva Graduate Institute (GTDW), Birmingham, KCL Trade and Development Workshop, Bank of Italy-ECB-WB Workshop, CUHK*, Loyola Marymount University*.
Out of the Network: Migration and the Decay of Relational Society (with Junjie Xia) [draft coming soon]
Migration Restrictions and Economic Misallocation (with Brian Kovak) [draft coming soon]
Works in Progress
Shape of Jobs and Urban Wage Premium (with Junjie Xia)
Jobs in Recessions: Demand, Supply, and the Role of Technological Changes (with Junjie Xia)
Superstar Firms and the Creation of Experts Along the Supply Chain (with Junjie Xia)
Jobs in Recessions: Demand, Supply, and the Role of Technological Changes (with Junjie Xia)
Superstar Firms and the Creation of Experts Along the Supply Chain (with Junjie Xia)
Book Chapter
Covid-19 and the Media (with Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker)
Prepared for the Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, K.F. Zimmermann (ed.) [Paper]
Prepared for the Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, K.F. Zimmermann (ed.) [Paper]